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 Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.

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Rogerrabbit



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PostSubject: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Mon Feb 14, 2011 6:07 pm

(Disclaimer I do not advocate gambling)

Online bookmakers are offering 50 to 1 odds on Michael returning, if you were to bet $1 you get $50 back if Michael returns from the 'dead' this year.

http://www.sportsbookgurus.com/news/talk-of-michael-jackson-returning-from-the-dead-hits-online-sportsbooks
 
For those that don't understand odds, bookmakers offer higher attractive odds on things that are less likely to happen, let's say a football team at the bottom of the table to win the league or a football team that is almost certain to win the league would have lower odds.

Now the chances of you or I winning the lottery are 18 million to 1, in this years grand national horse race with 40 horses there was horses with odds of 250 to 1 to win, so to put that in context bookmakers are saying a horse is 5 times less likely to win it's race then Michael is to return from the 'dead', or to put it another way bookmakers estimate that Michael has 5 times more chance of returning then a horse is of winning it's own race.

Given these caution odds it suggests bookmakers believe this is a real possibility, since death is pretty conclusive & there have been few to none documented resurections
bookmakers could in theory offer unlimited odds in the knowledge they'd never need to pay out ever, so why these cautious odds, do they have some insider knowledge, it's all for love.
 
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Dirty Diana



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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:50 am

Okay this is really interesting but there appear 2 situations

On one hand,you said if you pay $1 you get 50$ back if Michael returns,right? Well,it may be,as you said,that they have an insider and they are sure Michael comes back this year.

On the other hand,maybe they are just taking advantage from the fact that they see people believing Michael is alive. What if they aren't Michael fans,either beLIEvers? People are mean nowadays so why paying back $50 to a lot of people instead of winning $1 at each "crazy" beLIEver? It is obvious that they are NOT conscious of what is actually happening and it won't be the beLIEvers lost but instead it will be their lost.
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Captain_EO



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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Tue Feb 15, 2011 7:12 am

lol! This is kinda funny because I was going to place a bet on MJ returning in july, but I decided not to because it made me feel as if I was making money from him and to me that just isn't right...However, if they are taking bets surely that does NOT mean they think he is alive! They are losing money because like you say, if you bet $1, they then have to give you $50 back! Right?

L.O.V.E
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Dirty Diana



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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Tue Feb 15, 2011 10:53 am

Captain_EO wrote:
lol! This is kinda funny because I was going to place a bet on MJ returning in july, but I decided not to because it made me feel as if I was making money from him and to me that just isn't right...However, if they are taking bets surely that does NOT mean they think he is alive! They are losing money because like you say, if you bet $1, they then have to give you $50 back! Right?

L.O.V.E

Exactly
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Rogerrabbit



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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Tue Feb 15, 2011 11:55 am


@ Mjs dirty diana I totally agree the bookmakers are all about making as much money as possible, soo if they were a 100% confident in the 'death' why aren't  they offering irresistible mind boggling odds to tempt Everyone including non believers, as you said the bookmakers probably don't have insider info, but bookmakers do have risk assessment & I believe those 50-1 odds shows sufficient doubt over the possiblity, also can anyone explain why bookmakers would consider giving better odds for a man to return from the grave than a horse to win a race considering one is fairly possible and the other one just isn't. 



@Captain eo if you were to place a bet and michael didn't return in July you'd be double disapointed, instead  why not just have a pledge with yourself e.g plant a tree or something to signify your joy at his return, besides bookmakers are cheats, they'd have good cause not to pay out on a technicality, because michael wouldnt have been dead technically just in hiding. It's all for love.

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Captain_EO



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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:26 pm

rogerrabbit wrote:


@Captain eo if you were to place a bet and michael didn't return in July you'd be double disapointed, instead  why not just have a pledge with yourself e.g plant a tree or something to signify your joy at his return, besides bookmakers are cheats, they'd have good cause not to pay out on a technicality, because michael wouldnt have been dead technically just in hiding. It's all for love.


Ah yeah I agree! I am glad that I didn't place a bet now! Also I think I now understand what you mean...the bookmakers are taking bets on Michael coming back 'from the grave' meaning that everyone would lose even if he does come back, because he is not dead and never was? So how could he have possibly come back from the dead? Is that what you mean by the 'technicality' ?

L.O.V.E
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Rogerrabbit



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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:50 pm



Yes partly, a return would mean he wasn't actually dead,to bet 'coming back from the dead' wouldn't be strictly correct.
But my main point is the odds are very cautious too cautious in fact, you could say bookmakers are saying in around about way that there is a 1 in 50 chance of michael returning 'this year' or bookmaker speak 50 to 1 odds. It's all for love. 
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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Wed Feb 16, 2011 8:42 am

rogerrabbit wrote:


Yes partly, a return would mean he wasn't actually dead,to bet 'coming back from the dead' wouldn't be strictly correct.
But my main point is the odds are very cautious too cautious in fact, you could say bookmakers are saying in around about way that there is a 1 in 50 chance of michael returning 'this year' or bookmaker speak 50 to 1 odds. It's all for love. 

Ah! Now I completely understand what you are saying! If they thought he was really dead, the odds would be something like 1,000,000-1 right?!

L.O.V.E
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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:51 am

Yes 100% exactly, you could probably get those odds (50-1) for chelsea fc to win the epl even though there like 5th in league (uk talk), if bookmakers felt completely safe with the 'facts' they could offer a squillion to 1 as it wouldn't any difference because they'd never need to pay out anyway but it would pull in more bets, but they don't feel safe which is why they are offering piddling little odds, I hope members understood, the point is interesting but the subject is boring lol Smile, it's all for love. 
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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Wed Feb 16, 2011 3:37 pm

rogerrabbit wrote:
Yes 100% exactly, you could probably get those odds (50-1) for chelsea fc to win the epl even though there like 5th in league (uk talk), if bookmakers felt completely safe with the 'facts' they could offer a squillion to 1 as it wouldn't any difference because they'd never need to pay out anyway but it would pull in more bets, but they don't feel safe which is why they are offering piddling little odds, I hope members understood, the point is interesting but the subject is boring lol Smile, it's all for love. 

Ah ok then Smile BTW I know this is kinda off topic, but I am a Chelsea supporter and the way they are playing atm, I wouldn't bet on them winning either lol!

L.O.V.E
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Rogerrabbit



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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:33 pm

Boo chelsea lol, you got our nandos double Boo lol Wink, in reality you might get 20 to 1 on chelsea to win, it's old man fergie's again, glad you understood the odds thing, It's all for love.

 
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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Thu Feb 17, 2011 12:49 am

rogerrabbit wrote:

@ Mjs dirty diana I totally agree the bookmakers are all about making as much money as possible, soo if they were a 100% confident in the 'death' why aren't  they offering irresistible mind boggling odds to tempt Everyone including non believers, as you said the bookmakers probably don't have insider info, but bookmakers do have risk assessment & I believe those 50-1 odds shows sufficient doubt over the possiblity, also can anyone explain why bookmakers would consider giving better odds for a man to return from the grave than a horse to win a race considering one is fairly possible and the other one just isn't. 


Well,I think that the horse thing is just to encourage people to place a bet about Michael's return.They just assure them there are more chances that Michael might return this year than a horse might win a race competition and of course those people put all their trust in what they say which is absolutely ridiculous for the organizers because one day the thing they have bet on will come true.
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Captain_EO



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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Thu Feb 17, 2011 8:39 am

rogerrabbit wrote:
Boo chelsea lol, you got our nandos double Boo lol Wink, in reality you might get 20 to 1 on chelsea to win, it's old man fergie's again, glad you understood the odds thing, It's all for love.

 

lol!

L.O.V.E
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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Thu Feb 17, 2011 2:19 pm

@ Mj's dirty diana agreed just to finish off the topic, them odds are telling, it's all for love. 


Captain eo "At the end of the storm Is a golden sky And the sweet silver song of the lark" Smile ,said with love L.O.V.E, it's all for love.

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PostSubject: Re: Cautious Bookmakers Are Taking Bets On Michael's Return.    Fri Feb 18, 2011 12:29 am

It's all for love Smile
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